Looking for Clues

Byron Jacobs

A great many games players whose main field of expertise is chess are now making all or part of their living from poker. Switching to poker is a fairly natural move for chess players, especially since the rewards in chess – for all except the very top players – are quite feeble. The mentality of a strong chess player is, in general, quite well suited to poker. Chess players are usually fairly aggressive creatures, they like to be in control of situations and often have a bit of ‘gamble’ in them. All of this helps when playing poker.

I suspect that a compensating weakness may well be a tendency to tilt. Most very strong chess players really hate losing – and I mean really hate it. They will fight like tigers to defend bad positions because the pain of investing several hours of nervous energy in a game only to end up with a big fat zero on the scorechart is so great. However, in poker even consistently winning players have to spend much of their time – maybe even most of it – losing. A lot of the time, the result of a hand, session or tournament is simply beyond your control. You just have to get used to it and that is a difficult feature for chessplayers to adapt to.

However, I have always suspected that bridge players ought to make really good poker players. They already have card skills and are attuned to the vagaries of fortune that naturally accompany games with a random element. They also understand that their opponents are often trying to deceive them, they have a good eye for technical detail and are adept at looking for clues in the previous play and making assumptions and the basis of what they remember.

This final skill is one that poker players would do very well to develop. Strong bridge players have this ability in spades (ha ha!). The very best players can examine a hand in forensic detail and make deductions such as, ‘My left hand opponent opened one heart but when I bid two clubs he then passed rather than over-bidding two hearts so the hearts probably break 5-4 rather than 6-3 so I should play the heart suit by ... etc.’

An individual hand of hold’em is not played in isolation. It is one hand in the context of a longer session and during that session you have the chance to observe your opponents and watch how they play their hands. It is also important to remember exactly what happened at an earlier stage of a deal as this can provide crucial information as to how you should play. Here are a couple of examples.

This is an 8-player game and you are in the big blind with Ah-10h. The UTG player, who is to your immediate left, is pretty loose pre-flop and likes to get involved in a lot of hands. However you have noticed that, although he handicaps himself by playing too many hands, he is actually quite skilled post-flop. He has a good feel for what is going on and is quite capable of making plays – raising appropraitely, bluffing, semi-bluffing etc. In fact he likes to make such plays.

On this occasion he limps in and everyone folds round to you. Of course you can check but you know that the UTG probably has quite a feeble holding. Your A-10 is likely best right now and so, quite reasonably, you elect to raise. He calls. There are 4½ small bets in the pot and the flop comes down 10c-9c-7s, giving you top pair, top kicker. This is not a bad flop by any means but you have to be concerned about its coordinated nature, especially considering that your opponent limped in originally. Players who like to get involved will often limp in with middling cards and there is a danger that this flop has hit him big time.

Nevertheless you, of course, bet and he calls fairly quickly. There are now 3.25 big bets in the pot and the turn is a harmless 10c-9c-7s-2d. You bet and he again calls. There are 5.25 big bets in the pot and the river brings 10c-9c-7s-2d-6c. This is a rather ugly card, completing four to a straight and also bringing the third flush card. So, now what do you do?

Many players like to decide instantly, reasoning either: ‘That’s not going to frighten me – bet,’ or ‘Uh oh – scary card; better check and call’.

However, the best course of action is not to do anything at all, at least not immediately. The best plan is to use the big thing between your ears and think – specifically about what has happened in the hand to date, what you know about your opponent and how likely it is that this card has made a hand for him.

First of all, you know that he plays well post-flop and likes to make plays. However, on this particular hand he has simply called your flop and turn bets rather than raising. If the 6c really has helped his hand the it is probable that he either:

  1. Has an 8 in his hand and he has now made a straight.
  2. Has two hearts and has now completed a flush.

So, are these holdings likely? Not really. If he had a hand which included either an 8 or a couple of hearts he would have had a very good drawing hand on the flop and would most likely have raised. But he didn’t raise – he just called. This strongly implies that he has some sort of mediocre made hand. Furthermore, if he had such a hand on the flop and turn he still does and he will probably call a bet on the river. So you bet, he calls and you win. The hand history shows that he had 4d-4c and was speculating on your holding unpaired overcards. If you had played a safety-first game and checked he would have checked it back and one big bet would have slipped through your fingers.

Here is another example. This is a ten-player game and you are in the big blind with Jh-9h. The UTG is a moderate, solid player who has very tight pre-flop standards. Let’s consider two ways this hand can be played:

  1. The UTG opens with a raise, a middle player calls and you call. There are three players in the pot and 6½ small bets. The flop is Qc-10h-8c, giving you a straight. There are various ways to play here but you decide to check. The UTG bets, the middle player folds and you raise. The UTG now 3-bets, you cap and he calls. There are 7.25 big bets in the pot and the turn brings Qc-10h-8c-4d. You bet and he calls. There are 9.25 big bets in the pot and the river is Qc-10h-8c-4d-Ac. You bet and he raises.
  2. The UTG limps and a middle player raises. You call as does the UTG. The play from here on in is identical to that in ‘1’. Again you bet the river and get raised.

The Ac has delivered a third club on board as well as creating the possibility of a Broadway straight. Rather than just making an instant call and hoping for the best, let’s think about what the UTG might actually hold.

We know he is moderate, solid player. Therefore he is raising the river for value, genuinely believing that the Ac has given him the winning hand. Well, has it?

If he is now beating you then his hand must be either K-J or two clubs. You are winning against everything else. What is the strongest ‘two-club’ hand he can have? The Ac and the Qc are on the board, so the best he can have is Kc-Jc. In example ‘1’ our opponent (who – remember – is very tight pre-flop) open raised UTG. Therefore he ‘cannot’ have Kc-Jc. He can however have A-A, A-K or A-Q. All of these would justify his play of the hand to date (actually to 3-bet the flop with A-K would be a bit optimistic but it is not a ridiculous play). In example ‘2’ where he originally limps UTG he can certainly hold K-J and he can certainly have a random holding featuring two clubs.

Thus in example ‘1’ we should re-raise for value and in example ‘2’ we should be more circumspect and call. When playing poker always stay alert, watch the play and look for clues. You may spot some useful stuff.

Provided by Card Player, The Poker Authority

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